🗺 Interactive Risk Map — Nankai Trough & Japan
Nankai Trough
Tsunami Risk Zone
Historical Earthquakes
Selected Location
Live Seismicity (USGS)
📡 Live Seismicity — Live (USGS)
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📈 30-Day Activity Trend (Live)
Data: USGS Earthquake Hazards Program · Nankai Region (28°–40°N, 128°–145°E) · M2.5+
📊 Probability Analysis — 30 Years
Kyoto
HERP Baseline:
Nankai 80%
Tokai 70%
Tōnankai 60%
Simultaneous M9+: ~50%
Nankai+Tōnankai simultaneously → M9+ (like Hōei 1707)
📜 Historical Megaquakes since 1700
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1707
Hōei Earthquake M9.0
Largest historical Nankai earthquake · Tsunami up to 25m · Mt. Fuji eruption 49 days later · ≈5,000 deaths
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1854
Ansei-Tōkai M8.4
Followed 32h later by Ansei-Nankai M8.4 · Tsunami in Osaka · ≈3,000 deaths
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1854
Ansei-Nankai M8.4
Double earthquake sequence · Tsunami devastated Kii Peninsula · Classic cascade effect
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1891
Nōbi Earthquake M8.0
Inland earthquake, Nagoya region · 7,273 deaths · Neo fault rupture visible for 80km
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1944
Shōwa-Tōnankai M8.1
WWII censorship · ≈1,200 deaths · Precursor to the 1946 sequence
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1946
Shōwa-Nankai M8.1
Last major Nankai event · Tsunami 6m · ≈1,400 deaths · Wakayama, Kōchi badly affected
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1995
Great Hanshin-Awaji M6.9
Kobe directly hit · 6,434 deaths · Infrastructure collapse · Turning point for disaster preparedness
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2011
Tōhoku Earthquake M9.1
Strongest ever recorded in Japan · 20,000+ deaths · Fukushima disaster · Warning for Nankai
🇯🇵 気象庁 JMA — Live
✅ No active tsunami warning
震度:
1Weak
3Felt
4Moderate
5Strong
6Very strong
7Extreme
🧮 Personal Risk Calculator — Kyoto
RISK ASSESSMENT
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🌊 Tsunami Risk Zones
Zone A — Extreme
Wave heights up to 10m · Coastal strips of Kōchi, Wakayama, Shizuoka · Immediate evacuation required
~5–15 min
Zone B — High
Osaka Bay · Ise Bay · Suruga Bay · Flooding of low-lying areas up to 5m
~20–40 min
Zone C — Medium
Tokyo Bay · Chubu coastline · Waves 1–3m · Infrastructure at risk
~60–90 min
Kyoto — No Tsunami Risk
~180km inland · But: strong shaking (JMA 5–6+) · Infrastructure damage possible
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Estimated Wave Heights (Nankai M9)
🚨 Evacuation Plan — Kyoto & Nankai Zone
1
DROP · COVER · HOLD ON
Immediately drop, take cover under a sturdy table or door frame · Protect your head · Do not run outside during shaking
2
Extinguish fire & shut off gas
Turn off stove & candles immediately · Close main gas valve · Kyoto: elevated fire risk from timber buildings
3
Proceed to evacuation point
Kyoto: Heian-Jingu Park · Nishikyōgoku Stadium · Imperial Palace Grounds · Funaoka-yama Park
4
Communication
Listen to J-Alert system · NHK Radio · Safety Tips App · Foreigners: contact your embassy
5
72h emergency kit
Water (3L/day), food, medicine, torch, radio, document copies, cash
1
IMMEDIATELY after shaking: move to high ground
Do NOT wait for a warning · Strong shaking = tsunami warning · 5 minutes can save your life
2
Know your evacuation routes
Follow green signs (避難場所) · Never use a car on evacuation routes · Walk uphill
3
Use tsunami shelters
Tsunami evacuation towers (津波避難タワー) · 10m+ height · Coordinates in local app
!
Zone A time window: 5–15 minutes
Kōchi: 6 min · Kuroshio: 5 min · Wakayama: 8 min · No time to collect belongings
2
Return is FORBIDDEN
Sea receding = tsunami incoming · Waves come in multiple sets · 2nd often stronger than 1st
3
Stay at elevation until all-clear
Wait for NHK all-clear · At least 3 hours · Special broadcasts on all channels
📉 Historical Cycles & Future Forecast — Nankai Trough
Cycle Analysis
Historical cycle
90–150 years
Average of all Nankai events
Since last earthquake (1946)
80 years
Within the critical window
Probable time window
2030–2050
Peak risk decade (HERP)
WARNING
Hōei 1707 showed: Nankai + Tōnankai can rupture simultaneously → M9+ possible